Submitted By: genedieken@yahoo.com – Click to email about this post
ITEM ONE: It’s not just the Wall Street Journal calling Trump’s tariffs “the dumbest trade war in history.” Now UCLA’s Anderson Forecast has issued a recession watch, assuming Trump policies will be fully implement.
“Weaknesses are beginning to emerge in households’ spending patterns. And the financial sector, with elevated asset valuations and newly introduced areas of risk, is primed to amplify any downturn. What’s more, the recession could end up being stagflationary.”
“The exceptional degree of uncertainty surrounding these policies is in and of itself damaging to the economy. The ad-hoc and fitful tariff policy paralyzes firms’ investment and hiring decisions as they prefer to wait until there is more clarity surrounding future economic conditions. The threat of deportations paralyzes economic activity in immigrant communities as both workers and consumers choose to stay home in fear of capture. DOGE’s activities are creating a heightened level of job insecurity for most federal workers.”
www.anderson.ucla.edu/about/centers/ucla-anderson-forecast/recession-watch-2025
ITEM TWO: The USDA is expediting $10 billion in direct economic relief to agricultural producers to offset losses from tariffs. This is likely the first round of many more to come and is similar to what was done during Trump’s first term tariffs aimed at China, where closer to $20 billion was allocated. This money is on top of routine, ongoing federal ag support payments and applies to agricultural acreage in active production or in reserve. A cynic might call this a farm family suicide prevention program (as it was in 2017-20) but the truth is, most of the aid goes to the largest producers and corporations.
Here’s a list of the per acre support by crop: Wheat – $30.69 Corn – $42.91 Canola – $31.83 Sorghum – $42.52 Crambe – $19.08 Barley – $21.67. Flax – $20.97 Oats – $77.66 Mustard – $11.36 Upland cotton & extra-long staple cotton $84.74 Rapeseed -$23.63 Long & medium grain rice – $76.94 Safflower – $26.32 Peanuts – $75.51 Sesame – $16.83 Soybeans – $29.76 Sunflower – $27.23 Dry peas – $16.02 Lentils – $19.30 Small Chickpeas – $31.45 Large Chickpeas – $24.02
Gene Dieken
“Weaknesses are beginning to emerge in households’ spending patterns. And the financial sector, with elevated asset valuations and newly introduced areas of risk, is primed to amplify any downturn. What’s more, the recession could end up being stagflationary.”
“The exceptional degree of uncertainty surrounding these policies is in and of itself damaging to the economy. The ad-hoc and fitful tariff policy paralyzes firms’ investment and hiring decisions as they prefer to wait until there is more clarity surrounding future economic conditions. The threat of deportations paralyzes economic activity in immigrant communities as both workers and consumers choose to stay home in fear of capture. DOGE’s activities are creating a heightened level of job insecurity for most federal workers.”
www.anderson.ucla.edu/about/centers/ucla-anderson-forecast/recession-watch-2025
ITEM TWO: The USDA is expediting $10 billion in direct economic relief to agricultural producers to offset losses from tariffs. This is likely the first round of many more to come and is similar to what was done during Trump’s first term tariffs aimed at China, where closer to $20 billion was allocated. This money is on top of routine, ongoing federal ag support payments and applies to agricultural acreage in active production or in reserve. A cynic might call this a farm family suicide prevention program (as it was in 2017-20) but the truth is, most of the aid goes to the largest producers and corporations.
Here’s a list of the per acre support by crop: Wheat – $30.69 Corn – $42.91 Canola – $31.83 Sorghum – $42.52 Crambe – $19.08 Barley – $21.67. Flax – $20.97 Oats – $77.66 Mustard – $11.36 Upland cotton & extra-long staple cotton $84.74 Rapeseed -$23.63 Long & medium grain rice – $76.94 Safflower – $26.32 Peanuts – $75.51 Sesame – $16.83 Soybeans – $29.76 Sunflower – $27.23 Dry peas – $16.02 Lentils – $19.30 Small Chickpeas – $31.45 Large Chickpeas – $24.02
Gene Dieken